Daily Market Dispatch – November 21, 2025 Bitcoin tests support as outflows weigh Crypto markets extended their correction Friday, with Bitcoin sliding to a seven-month low beneath $82,000 as the broader risk environment turned defensive. The total crypto market cap sits near $2.7 trillion, down roughly 3% on the day. Roughly $1.2 trillion in value has evaporated from digital assets over the past six weeks, mirroring the retreat in equities as investors recalibrate to a stickier inflation outlook and fading hopes of a December Fed rate cut. Traditional markets are showing similar fatigue. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow are each down around 3% for the week, pressured by stronger U.S. jobs data and renewed unease over AI-driven valuations. Japan’s new ¥21 trillion stimulus and the U.K.’s looming budget have done little to lift sentiment. This pullback looks less like panic and more like a recalibration, a market testing how much policy support remains as the year draws to a close. Bitcoin Bitcoin’s drop below $82,000 underscores how closely it continues to track high-beta equities. Still, the asset recovered towards $85,000 on the day. Stronger-than-expected payrolls erased near-term rate-cut bets, draining liquidity from the same corners of the market that thrived under easy policy. Still, the underlying structure remains intact: ETF assets total $113 billion – around 6.5% of Bitcoin’s market cap – while long-term holders remain steady. JPMorgan analysts noted that this latest downturn has been driven less by crypto-native deleveraging and more by retail outflows from spot ETFs. This phase resembles portfolio trimming rather than capitulation. Each cycle has seen similar drawdowns before renewed accumulation. When liquidity tightens, Bitcoin feels it first and often leads the recovery once macro conditions stabilize. Ethereum & Altcoins Ether lost 7% to $2,700, with most major altcoins lower. Spot ETF redemptions accelerated to $261 million on Thursday, yet inflows into newly launched XRP, SOL, and HBAR funds suggest investors are rotating within the asset class rather than exiting altogether. Ethereum’s network activity remains steady: Layer-2 throughput is firm, staking rates are holding, and developer engagement is robust. The market’s repricing hasn’t interrupted the underlying trend of institutional experimentation with tokenization and infrastructure. In this sense, the correction appears cyclical, not structural as prices adjust faster than fundamentals. Macro & Institutional The macro backdrop remains heavy. U.S. equities endured another sharp sell-off Thursday as the probability of a December rate cut fell to roughly 30%. Japan’s fiscal package aims to sustain growth and strengthen its semiconductor and AI sectors, while the yen’s weakness keeps traders alert for intervention. In the U.K., falling retail sales and higher borrowing costs complicate Chancellor Reeves’s pre-budget arithmetic. Institutional flows reflected the cautious tone. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $903 million in outflows Thursday, their second-largest on record. Yet cumulative inflows remain near $57 billion, a reminder that long-term positioning has not unraveled. Institutions appear to be trimming exposure rather than exiting, maintaining liquidity while waiting for a clearer policy signal. Looking Ahead Next week will be a busy and defining one for macro, with a dense data lineup that could steer risk sentiment into year-end. Highlights include Germany’s Q3 GDP, U.S. retail sales, PPI, CB consumer confidence, initial jobless claims, and the core PCE indexl the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, alongside the Fed’s balance sheet update. The recalibration underway could lay the groundwork for a steadier close to 2025 as rate expectations and liquidity conditions gradually converge. — Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch Analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.